Monday, 23 August 2010
EUR/GBP - 1.225
Last week was a strong one for sterling against the euro and this trend has continued this morning as it is trading at 1.2260/£1. During this past week, the Bank of England minutes for the month of August showed that the decision to keep interest rates unchanged was not unanimous for a third successive month as Andrew Sentance was once again the lone dissenter, calling for an increase of 25 basis points to 0.75 percent. Sterling was initially well supported after the Bank of England minutes as there was no talk about a further bout of quantitative easing. For this upcoming week broader risk trends will dictate sterling price action as sterling faces a light economic calendar. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the Eurozone, the euro finished the week on the slide against sterling which has continued into this morning. This was despite good German data which showed that German manufacturing has enabled the country to return to pre-crisis levels for exports of goods, with renewed demand for German cars and machine tools. There seems to be a feeling that Germany is carrying the rest of Europe on its own with Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Italian and Spanish debt interest rates all rising sharply. Today sees Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released today for various member states. PMI data is generally seen as a good barometer for industrial trends. Get in touch now for a quote to ensure that you don’t miss out.
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Friday, 9 July 2010
EUR/GBP - 1.195
Sterling fell yesterday against the US dollar and euro as mixed economic data triggered a sell off of sterling positions. Despite hitting a 2 month high of $1.5241/ £1 – the highest since early May – the pound struggled to make ground. This happened despite data showing a larger than expected rise in industrial production. However, house prices fell and the Bank of England kept the interest base rate and quantitative easing programme on hold as expected. It was revealed a few weeks ago that Bank of England member Andrew Sentence had voted for an increase in interest rates at the last meeting. We will need to wait for 2 weeks until the minutes of yesterday’s meeting are released to see whether any other members of the Bank of England followed suit. Out later today there is monthly PPI data and trade balance data which is expected to show a slight contraction in the UK’s trade deficit. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the Euro zone, Germany’s trade surplus shrank by 3bn and the European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 1%. The press conference comments by bank president Jean-Claude Trichet helped boost the euro to above $1.27/1 for the first time since May. The bank president stated that he felt that the recovery was well under well and details over the proposed ‘stress tests’ of government and bank debt helped push the currency higher. The euro pushed below 1.20/ £1 as a result. Out later today, there is Italian and French industrial production data and German PPI purchasing data. Call in for a live exchange rate.
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Thursday, 8 July 2010
EUR/GBP - 1.199
Sterling had a good day yesterday, recovering lost ground against the US dollar and euro as a recovery in UK shares on the FTSE stock market helped ease concerns over the fragility of the economy. Data on UK jobs growth was relatively poor and this put a cap on the strengthening pound. Against the euro, the pound was broadly stronger but sterling seems to have lost the post-budget momentum as gains related to sentiment have given way to concerns that the tax hikes and spending cuts will dampen growth and harm the UK recovery. Many analysts are concerned that the government will struggle to effectively implement the spending cuts, with industrial action being a potential stumbling block. Despite these concerns, the pound has strengthened this morning to a 2 month high against the US dollar as sentiment towards the Euro zone improves and investors look to ‘riskier’ assets in the UK and Euro zone. The big event today is the Bank of England interest rate decision. The rate is expected to stay the same and the emergency funding is likely to remain on hold. However, if this does change, there will be considerable volatility. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the Euro zone, final GDP for the quarter came in as expected at 0.2%. There was however slightly poor data in the form of the French trade balance whereby the deficit increased by 1.5bn. In addition, against an expected increase of 0.5%, German factory orders fell by 0.5%. Out today there is data on the German trade balance and also a press conference by the European Central Bank following the interest rate decision – the press conference is normally fairly scripted, but the ‘free questions’ can sometimes prompt volatility if there are any controversial statements. Get in touch now for a live exchange rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 24 June 2010
EUR/GBP - 1.218
Sterling hit a 6 week high against the US dollar of $1.4999/£1 after sentiment was given a large boost. Firstly, following the emergency budget on Tuesday, credit rating agency Moody’s stated that the UK will retain the AAA credit rating if it successfully implements Tuesday’s measures. In addition, investors were in for a shock when the Bank of England’s minutes for this month’s meeting on monetary policy showed that one of the Bank members voted for a rise in interest rates – the first time for over 2 years that anyone has voted for a rate hike. With VAT set to rise to 20% and a round of tough spending cuts, the affirmation from Moody’s should ease investor concern over the UK. As a result, the pound saw a welcome boost. However, many analysts said that whilst the rise was justified, there are still genuine concerns over the possibility that the cuts and tax hikes could stifle out growth. As a result, many expect that the pound will not have the momentum to push far past $1.50/ £1 for some time. Get in touch now to take advantage of the best price in 6 weeks.
In the Euro zone, the euro fell against the pound as investors flocked to sterling. The pound hit 1.2189/ £1 at one point yesterday. Sentiment towards the euro is still poor, as Portugal announced that borrowing from the ECB by banks in the country doubled in May to a new record level. Banks in the region are having to borrow directly from the central bank, as they face difficulties borrowing on the ‘interbank’ market. The interbank market is where banks borrow money on a short term basis (e.g. overnight) to pay obligations. Due to poor sentiment in the region, the interest rates for overnight lending are prohibitively high and banks are going to the central bank for financing. Out today, we have some retail sales and industrial data – call in now for a live exchange rate.
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Friday, 11 June 2010
EUR/GBP - 1.213
Sterling rose yesterday driven by a stock market rally and the fact that many investors felt that poor sentiment surrounding the UK’s record deficit had already been ‘priced in’ – i.e. the price takes into account the deficit. The pound rose to a high of $1.4667/£1 and hit 1.2147/ £1 against the euro as investors bought back into the pound following poor sentiment earlier in the week over a possible downgrade of the country’s AAA credit rating. The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold for the 15th month running and also kept the Asset Purchase Facility (quantitative easing) on hold at £200bn. This was widely expected, and further settled the markets and helped add to the pound’s strength. In terms of data, there was little out aside from the Bank decision and out today we have manufacturing data which is expected to show a decline. There is however still concerns over the budget on 22nd June which is holding the pound back. Get in touch now to ensure you are set up to deal with any volatility that this causes.
In the Euro zone, French industrial production fell by 0.3% and the European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold at 1.0%. The euro strengthened following the press conference, as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet made clear that the recent purchase of Government bonds by the emergency fund would not have any bearing on the ECB’s monetary policy. The sentiment towards the region is still very poor and many analysts are forecasting 1.25/£1. Get in touch now for a live exchange rate – especially if you are holding euros or will need to move euros into sterling at some point soon.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 10 June 2010
EUR/GBP - 1.210
Sterling recovered yesterday when investors bought back into the pound after analysts stated that the pound had been oversold on Tuesday following comments by credit rating agency Fitch. In the end, the comments made by Fitch added nothing new to what the markets knew already. Concerns over the deficit and a potential credit rating agency have been around since the start of the year, and many investors have been calmed by the aggressive cost cutting measures that have already been announced by the new government. As a result, the pound hit $1.4578/ £1 and was helped along by a strong performance by stock markets as risk aversion eased slightly. The pound is likely to remain under pressure in the run up to the emergency budget on June 22nd as investors remain cautious. There is a lot of data out today, with the main UK news being the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Whilst it is expected to remain on hold for the considerable future, there could be volatility if any comments are made regarding the £200bn asset purchasing facility. Call in now to ensure you take advantage of any movement.
In the Euro zone, there was little data out yesterday and the single currency took its lead from general sentiment and reaction to other currencies. With sterling having a strong day, the euro fell towards the 18 month low it hit last week, with the pound firmly back over the 1.21/£1 mark. Out later today, we have the European Central Bank press conference in which the bank will outline this month’s interest rate and monetary policy decision. The press conference can cause considerable volatility if any of the comments made are unexpected. In addition, there is some French unemployment data out this morning. Get in touch with a trader to make sure you are buying at the right time.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
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