Showing posts with label Hung Parliament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hung Parliament. Show all posts

Thursday, 13 May 2010

EUR/GBP Rate & Comments for 13th May 2010

EUR/GBP - 1.174

After a strong start to the day following the formation of a new government, sterling fell against the US dollar and euro. The pound hit a low of $1.4821/ £1 after opening above $1.5040/ £1. Against the euro, sterling fell from a high of 1.1830/ £1 to finish the day around the 1.17/ £1 mark. The reversal in fortune was as a result of yesterdays Bank of England inflation report, which predicted that inflation is likely to undershoot the 2% target over the next 2 years with interest rates likely to remain at record lows of 0.5% as a result. The initial optimism that boosted the pound following the announcement of a new government faded following the report, as many traders realised that the UK has a hard road ahead of it to clear the deficit which is currently running at 11% of GDP. In addition, despite the unemployment claimant count falling by 27%, unemployment rose to the highest level since 1994. The optimism of the election is likely to fade further (as we saw in the USA following the election of Barack Obama) and as a result it would be worthwhile looking at making any payments now before the pound sinks any further. Out today we have trade balance data, which can occasionally cause large movements if it comes in better or worse than expected. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the Euro zone, industrial production rose by slightly more than expected and an initial estimate of 1st Quarter GDP came in at 0.2% against an expectation of 0.1%. This unexpected rise helped the euro strengthen against the pound. There is little data out today as France and Germany enjoy a bank holiday, but the markets are still nervous over the Greek situation and despite the 750bn bail out, there is still a high risk of a European country defaulting. Get in touch now, as despite the bleak outlook in the euro zone we could see the pound suffer in the next few weeks as the implications of the task ahead for the next government take effect.

Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

Monday, 10 May 2010

EUR/GBP Rate & Comments for 10th May 2010

EUR/GBP - 1.143

After a turbulent week for the pound last week, and the most closely fought election for nearly forty years, we are still in store for a turbulent week on the foreign exchange markets. Sterling recovered marginally from Friday morning’s lows against the US dollar as David Cameron and Nick Clegg discussed the possibility of working together in a Liberal/ Conservative coalition. With discussions taking place over the weekend, the markets are awaiting clarity as to what the outcome will be. However, with both parties clear that a major priority is clearing the deficit, we should see sterling recover on the announcement of any power sharing deal. At the same time, if talks fail, we will see another fall in sentiment towards the pound. Despite political factors taking centre stage this week, there is a lot of fundamental data out too. Today we have the Bank of England’s interest rate decision (postponed from last week following the election). It is widely expected that the Bank will keep rates on hold at 0.5% and keep the emergency funding on hold at £200bn. Also, we have retail sales data for the UK. Call in now to avoid the market moving against you.

In the Euro zone, following panic last week over the risk of sovereign debt ‘contagion’, the big news this morning is the announcement of a 500bn comprehensive package to avoid the Greek crisis spreading. The package takes the form of loan guarantees and the European Central Bank pledged to conduct ‘interventions’ in public and private debt markets to ensure ‘depth and liquidity’. This is to all intents and purposes the same as the quantitative easing programme that the US, UK and Japan put in place in 2008. This announcement has seen the return of (some) confidence in the Euro zone and as a result, the euro has jumped back over 1.30/ $1 and has strengthened by 1.5% against sterling. Despite this, UBS and Barclays Capital investment banks both see the euro hitting a ‘fair value’ of 1.20/ $1 in the next few months. Get in touch now to make sure you are protected from these movements.

Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

Friday, 7 May 2010

EUR/GBP Rate & Comments for 7th May 2010

EUR/GBP - 1.150

Sterling has had a rollercoaster ride over the last 24 hours. We saw it hit 1.1860/ £1 at one point yesterday, before falling to a low (at the time of writing) of 1.1532/ £1 as sterling goes into freefall this morning as current predictions point to a hung parliament. Against the US dollar, the pound plunged as the first exit polls were released at 10pm last night and hit $1.4598/ £1 – the lowest level in over a year. Sterling is currently trading at $1.4710/£1, but could drop considerably further depending on how the day develops. The huge volatility was as a result of panic selling as concerns over the spread of European sovereign debt sent shockwaves through global markets. This panic hit stock markets and at one point yesterday in the USA, the Dow Jones was down over 1000 points – the most since the height of the credit crunch. The FTSE slipped over 5% and is on track for the biggest weekly fall since March 2009. With current results showing that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome of the election, sterling took back gains made against the euro yesterday. With complete uncertainty as to who will be the next prime minister, especially with Gordon Brown seemingly keen to cling onto power despite a huge swing to the Conservatives. Call in now for a live price, as a lot could happen over the course of the day.

In the Euro zone, rioting gripped the Greek capital for a second day as members of the public protested against the terms of the recent 110bn ‘austerity package’. The Greek parliament unanimously approved the terms, which impose harsh cuts on public spending, tax increases and caps on public sector salaries. The fear over ‘contagion’ spread is likely to grip markets further today. The euro took a huge hit yesterday and has fallen to near historic lows of 1.25871/ $1 against the US dollar. Analyst predictions of 1.20/ $1 is looking more and more likely as we continue to see absolute panic over the state of the Euro zone. Call in to ensure you don’t miss out.

Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

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