Friday, 12 March 2010
EURO/GBP - 1.102
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Sterling rose yesterday following a slight upturn in inflation expectations, but negative sentiment over the economic and political situation in the UK still remains. Despite Thursday’s modest upswing, which saw the pound hit a high of $1.5065/ £1 and 1.1035/ £1, many analysts expect sterling to remain under pressure in the run up to an election. The markets are still looking for a clear plan to clear the UK deficit and Gordon Brown’s comments yesterday did not help. The Prime Minister felt that the UK economy was still too fragile to start cutting spending. With a budget deficit at nearly 12% of GDP, this did not go down well with the markets. There is very little other UK data on the horizon until next week, so expect negative sentiment to prevail – especially if we see further detrimental opinion polls in the Sunday newspapers over the weekend. It would seem advisable to take advantage now if you have payments due soon, as sterling is expected to fall further in the short term.
In the Euro zone, French Non-Farm Payrolls declined less than initially thought. The euro traded in a fairly narrow range as the European Central Bank maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy in its monthly report – stating that it would maintain liquidity to support the banking system whilst pulling back the emergency stimulus measures. Out today there is industrial production data for the euro zone which is expected to show an increase in output, although it will remain to be seen whether this can continue to grow with government liquidity being scaled back. The euro has had a relatively quiet week with Greece seemingly taking a back seat. However, this can easily resurface as an issue – get in touch now to avoid any volatility impacting your payments.
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Exchange rates can move very quickly. The above rates are valid at a moment in time. We have no crystal ball and we recommend that if an exchange rate works for your budget then don’t wait for an even better exchange rate - Murphy’s Law says the rate will go against you and cause you maximum pain! Suggestions should not be taken as advice or fact.
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