Weekly € rates and comments – week commencing 30th November 2009

Some ups and downs for sterling last week. We had a slight revision upwards of the growth figures for the UK economy in the third quarter. But instead of growth we were still seeing the UK economy contract. The belief is that we will see the economy grow in the current quarter and the Bank of England has forecast growth of 2.2% in 2010 and 4.1% in 2011. But as highlighted by the Chairman of the BoE this is off a low base and the current recovery was not particularly strong and is subject to some profound challenges ongoing. And it has to be remembered that the BoE will at some point in time have to raise UK interest rates and have to sell the bonds that it has bought as part of its quantitative easing programme back to the market. But given the current problems this will not be for quite a while. This week we have the release of Novembers purchasing indices for both manufacturing and services and the expectation is for an increase.

 

The euro zone continues to see its economy recover and the euro sits at €1.098/£1 inter bank. Both the purchasing managers' indices for manufacturing and services for the euro zone continue to increase and are running well ahead of the level seen in the third quarter. Sterling lost value on the back of the problems in Dubai and the increase in risk aversion. But the €/£ exchange rate continues to move in a fairly narrow arrange so we wait to see a clear direction. This week we have the release of Novembers purchasing indices for both manufacturing and services and the expectation is for an increase. We also have the European Central Bank meeting and the expectation is that interest rates will be kept on hold, that they upgrade there growth figures for 2010 and that the withdrawal of the one year financing option that was brought in as an emergency lending facility.