Weekly € rates and comments – week commencing 27th July 2009

Last week was a quite week for sterling as it tended to trade in a narrow range against both the US$ and the €. It seems to be waiting for a catalyst to give it some momentum one way or the other. The initial estimate of 2^nd quarter gross domestic product released during the week showed a larger contraction than expected but was a vast improvement on the previous quarter. This has been taken as a sign that the economy is close to the bottom of this recession. This view was also supported by the minutes from the last Bank of England meeting which highlighted that the BoE was unlikely in the short term to increase its programme of quantitative easing. The reason given was the need to properly assess the affect of the programme to date. This makes sense. The major constraint for an improvement in sterling is the level of government debt and the lack of a plan [or political will power] from the government to bring it down. Until this is resolved the upside for sterling is limited. In the middle of this week we have the release of UK mortgage approvals for June which is expected to have risen again. Otherwise it is a quiet week on the UK economic data front.

 

The € continues to hover around the €1.16/£1 mark. The economic landscape in euro land seems to be very similar to that of the US and the UK. The pace of the decline is slowing which gives the feeling that we are close to the bottom. This is supported by a the rise in the purchasing managers survey in the manufacturing and services sector which both increased in July to the 45-46 level. Still less than the magic 50 which indicates expansion but at the very least they are going in the right direction. In the middle of this week we have German inflation/deflation figures released. Will be very interesting to see if the German economy is now "suffering" from deflation.