Monday, 5 January 2009

Weekly € rates and comments – week commencing 5th January 2009

Due to the holiday season, there was very little in terms of market data out last week. However sterling did stumble to yet another record low against the euro early on before rallying by about 2% on Wednesday back up to the previous week's levels. The Nationwide Building Society announced that as well as house prices having fallen by over 16% in 2008 that they will now be activating a clause in the contracts for their 'tracker' mortgages meaning that further cuts in interest rates will definitely not be passed on should the Bank of England lower interest rates again in the coming months. This demonstrates a clear expectation by Nationwide for interest rates to be lowered further and is likely to lead to other major players in the lending sector to follow suit. Consumer confidence has been rocked by the fall-out of the credit crisis so far but a refusal to pass on the savings on interest by the banks whom have been blamed for creating the mess will surely cause further upset.

 

The Euro, currently at 1.064/£1, was also subject to mixed market data this week but with no big surprises coming from the news there was little in terms of significant movement. French GDP figures were as expected and Retail Purchasing Manager Index figures were mildly positive. However, the important trends seem to have been set and due to the projected scale of the economic downturn ahead for Europe in 2009 it is simply the absolute weakness of sterling which flatters the euro at present.

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